Reverse Thinking: Path dependance, Charlie Sheen and 8 Models to Think About Future in Terms of Anti-Trends

Most predictions assume that the future is a linear or exponential extension of the present—but what if that’s completely wrong? From the Curse of Moore’s Law to the Charlie Sheen Effect, this talk explores 8 contrarian models for forecasting the future. Learn why the next big thing often starts as a toy, why Germans abandoned mass HIV tests, what is 'laughing heuristic' and 'NSFW framework' and why drones shouldn't build houses.